The End of the Beginning: Assessing the Potential Economic Implications of Prolonged UK–EU Trade Policy Uncertainty


  • Ambassador Charles Ries, Vice President, RAND International
  • Dr. Rosa Balfour, Senior Fellow, Europe Program, The German Marshall Fund of the United States


  • Dr. Ian Lesser, Vice President, The German Marshall Fund of the United States

Ambassador Charles Ries, Vice President, RAND International, will present newly released findings from RAND Europe research that assess the potential economic implications of uncertainty during the next phase of trade negotiations. The new report, a follow-on to RAND Europe’s 2017 study “After Brexit, Alternative forms of Brexit and their Implications for the United Kingdom, the European Union, and the United States“ examines possible economic costs of uncertainty in the next phase of the Brexit process, during the negotiation of a permanent trade and economic relationship between the UK and the EU. The new study draws on analyses of changes in UK trade and foreign direct investment flows related to Brexit as experienced between 2016 and 2019; and utilizes a general equilibrium model to estimate the economic costs of uncertainty going forward until such time as a permanent trade agreement is in place.

Dr. Rosa Balfour, Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund, will join the discussion to provide a political perspective on the future of the UK-EU relationship.

The RAND Corporation is a U.S.-based non-profit, non-partisan research organization. RAND Europe is its European affiliate with offices in Cambridge, UK, and Brussels.


Jan 29 2020


17:30 - 19:00

Local Time

  • Timezone: America/New_York
  • Date: Jan 29 2020
  • Time: 11:30 - 13:00


Residence Palace
Rue de la Loi, 155 C, Brussels
Policy Areas


The German Marshall Fund of the United States
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